McCain win – the Machivallen way

Trying to find the betting odds for a McCain win. May seem odd as I want Obama to win but I have a theory. Put a relatively short bet on who you do not want to win. If your team/person wins you are happy. If not, well you have some spending money to drown your sorrows. This philosophy is literally hedging your bets into a win win situation.

Bob Barr

Bob Barr

In doing so I came across poll figures which include Barr and Nadar. Effectively the spoiler candidates, Bob Barr is the Libertarian Party Candidate. One poll has the results in key battleground states being won by Obama, where a combined McCain/Barr vote winning those states. So based on these figures one person suggests:

To win this election John McCain should ask all of his supporters in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia to vote for Bob Barr because a Bob Barr victory in these states would most likely keep Obama from receiving the majority of the elctoral [sic] college votes. This would leave it up to the House of Representatives to pick the president. Since each state would only receive one vote no matter how many Representatives they have, the most likely result would be McCain winning. The Senate would have to pick the veep and the Democrats would most likely win that race. The results would be a Republican President and a Democratic Vice President.

That idea ignores that the long term future would be the emergence of a contending third party in key states that could undermine the Republicans in the future. Sometimes the rational choice in electoral math is not necessarily the politically acceptable one.

The one thing that seems clear – without the Libertarian Party McCain’s chance at the White House would be better, and the odds would be shorter. But then I would not be so inclined to put a bet on him. Like I said, life is about hedging your bets.

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