Will Liberal support crumble, Tories take a battering and Labour win back seats and councils now they are in opposition? More then likely – the question is whether this shows confidence in Ed Milliband or dislike of austerity measures under the coalition. The later as negative is more likely to motivate people to a ballot box when you consider how in first past the post (FPTP) the chance of your mattering is slim unless contest in your seat even.
That we may get rid of FPTP will be because people want a Labour/liberal coalition to be more likely. The desire to hurt Nick Clegg for going through the door 10 Downing Street with Cameron would be a misjudgement for the left. However AV really is a dilution of political choice, rather than an accurate reflection of votes cast equalling seats in parliament.
To American readers, where Democrat and Republican is the choice this may seem mute. Your primaries give you the chance to choose the candidate from your party before the General Election in the way ours does not. Here a handful of party hacks usually select candidates.
The Labour left may not agree with my analysis because they may fear always needing liberal support. They would rightly take the neo classical liberals as a threat to a radical labour government. That forgets that Labour wins by taking and defending the centre ground. Tony Blair, he and his party management knew how to do this. Brown did not. Milliband needs to learn how to and appear a real credible alternative government in waiting.
I will not be staying up for the results. A good night’s sleep much more exciting. But if you cannot sleep you may want to read the other blogs on the Alternative Vote system (AV).