Richard Dawkins supports the British Monarchy

We truly are a mixed lot of cats as atheists. Even Prince Philip said “A Republic is a perfectly acceptable alternative.” Posh and Becks? Really, Professor.

Read my previous article on how monarchy takes away freedoms in a gilded cage of a Prince at birth.

I am reminded that even Christopher Hitchens abandoned a Thomas Paine view of monarchy to a gradual incremental change in time, fearing as I do that a Presidential system can ape a monarchy:

The last-ditchers are right in one way: it would scarcely be progress if we scrapped the Windsors and then prostrated ourselves at the feet of an imperial presidency. But if the argument is rightly conducted then the attitudes required to see us through to a democratic republic – or federation of democratic republics – would be their own insurance. We even begin to think as democratic republicans, and culti vate and reward democratic republican virtues.

Those who really wanted to would not be prevented from idolising Prince William or from gurgling at the Queen Mum. There will be room for royalists and restorationists in a democratic republic, and there will no doubt be tabloids and glossies to gratify them. But the large and growing number of republicans and democrats will not have to witness this spectacle as if we were all a part of it, and it was all a part of us. [Source]

This Fabian like call for the republican state will be too slow for most, who like me can be found using #bornEqual on twitter. For the likes of Donovan (@MrOzAtheist) and myself this cannot happen fast enough though I imagine he will have an elected head of state before me down under whilst I imagine Prince William will be reining on the throne whilst I am six feet under.

Still if you wanted proof that atheism is not a political consensus creating paradigm – voila.

Article written by John Sargeant on Homo economicus’ Weblog

Follow @JPSargeant78

My Huffington Post Blog

Keating coming back to haunt McCain

The Democrats are responding to the negative personal attack ads of the McCain camp by calling attention to the Keating 5 Scandal, which led to McCain being rebuked on the Senate floor. Having e mailed supporters to see a new documentary on the website Keating Economics, available 12 pm Eastern. But it will be something like this:

At the heart of the scandal was Keating’s Lincoln Savings and Loan Association, which took advantage of deregulation in the 1980s to make risky investments with its depositors’ money. McCain intervened on behalf of Charles Keating with federal regulators tasked with preventing banking fraud, and championed legislation to delay regulation of the savings and loan industry — actions that allowed Keating to continue his fraud at an incredible cost to taxpayers.[ibid]

This, together with McCain not able to lead in the bipartisan attempt to get the $700bn bail out bill passed (without sweetners which is at the heart of what is wrong with American politics), may be a good tactic for the Democrats. Attacking with something substantive works as opposed to guilt by association.

OTHER BLOGS:

Republicans pull out of Michigan – the toss up states matter

Republicans pull out of Michigan – the toss up states matter

Sarah Palin may be disappointed that they have left the state of Michigan. Yet with Obama having a 7% lead in a state that voted for Kerry and Gore, it makes much more sense for the Republicans to focus on the key battle states and take the resources from this state to those where it may make the difference. Namely:

Obama in Virginia

State                     Electoral Count         Obama lead (%)

North Carolina      15                             0.5

Nevada                  5                               1.8

Ohio                      20                             2.0

Virgina                   13                            2.4

Florida                    27                            3.0       [source]

If the Republicans concede any of these states then McCain has lost the White House. Taking states like those above where candidates have a 3% lead or less gives Obama 264 and McCain 163 – to win all it takes is 270. Despite Obama having on average a 6% lead in the polls (ranging from 3% – 9%) it will be those marginal states above that decide it. If McCain can get a 1.5% swing to him from Obama he will win the White House.

As I think that the polls are over stating Obama’s lead and under representing McCain, it is still very possible for McCain to win the White House. It is tight, and giving up on States that Obama has a clear lead in may be the smart move.

What McCain cannot afford however is to loose any states he currently holds. The good news for him (unlike Obama) is that most states are solidly supporting him, with only two states being vulnerable:

McCain in Colorado - a swing state

State                     Electoral Count         McCain lead (%)

Missouri                11                             1.7

Indiana                  11                             2.2       [source]

So when people tell you it will be a landslide for Obama or a close run race the answer is that there is an element of truth. If all the toss up seats go as they indicate above then Obama wins triumphantly 353 to 185. But a closer race is well within the margin for error. Obama wins Flordia or Ohio and keeps the other states that strongly support him then it is game over for McCain.

If the polls are under representing support for McCain he has a good chance of a narrow win. All the states above that are for Obama voted for George Bush in both 2000 and 20004. That may yet be reflected as we get nearer to polling day.

So expect more things like Palin pointing out that Obama was on a charity board with a founder member of the Weather Underground (a terroirst organisation against US involvement in the Vietnam war) while campaigning in Colorado (leaning to Obama 4.4% lead but voted for Bush the previous two times). What the McCain camp hope is that if the election becomes about character McCain will win. With Obama in Virgina attacking McCain’s health plan we may yet see an ideological battle occur to against an economic meltdown backdrop.

The key thing will be getting out the vote in these states. If Obama supporters feel that it is a done deal they may be inclined to stay at home. That would be a nightmare on polling day when results show the contest closer then the media were calling it. Obama has shown that he can create the momentum. The thing is to keep it going and on election day deliver his supporters to the polling booth.

One thing which McCain and Palin may use in the campaign:

The positive component is pretty straightforward: McCain and Palin are common sense conservatives and proven reformers. The record of reform can be emphasized and contrasted with Obama’s and Biden’s record of conventional, go-along, get-along liberalism. And implicitly: If McCain and Palin are reformers and outsiders, it’s not Bush’s third term. More important is the negative message. The McCain campaign has to convince 51 percent of the voters they can’t trust Barack Obama to be our next president. This has an ideological component and a character component. [Weekly Standard]

Democrats keep the champagne in the fridge – instead keep drinking the coffee because you are going to have to bust a gut to make sure that Obama wins the key states above and not fall for the hype that is being generated. The time to relax is when the polls close, because it ain’t over till it’s over.

OTHER BLOGS:

Congress backs $700bn bail out – McCain ain’t dead yet

Congress backs $700bn bail out – McCain ain’t dead yet

Could John McCain have pulled ahead, and distanced himself from Bush, by opposing the bill? Polls have Obama leads 50% to 42% having gained during the crisis.

Despite a majority of Republicans being against the bill, it passed by 263 – 171. $100bn in new tax breaks helped move enough Republicans (101 still voted against 91 in favour).

It also included tax breaks to help small businesses and to boost alternative energy, expanded the child tax credit and extended help to victims of recent hurricanes. (BBC News)

Has John McCain lost a beat by not opposing the Bush plan? 45% of people oppose the plan, though a similar number say they are confused by it. The mood however seems to have been blowing in the we need to do something, this is something, therefore we must do it, at least on Capitol Hill with the sweeteners above sealing the deal.

Further financial instability would have started hitting main street, with businesses unable to get credit for the next business transaction or investment to increase production. The question though is that the bill by a way to stabilise the economy without rewarding the mistakes made by the banks.

In Europe however the situation could potentially be worse. In the US 96 cents was lent for every dollar in deposits. In Europe the figures are 1.40 Euros lent for every 1 Euro (The Economist). The only thing we can say is that the worse is not over.

It has only began. This may not even work. In the long run we are all dead. Economists are not the sort of people to always look on the bright side of life. The only thing we can hope for is that this measure calms the markets, makes the bank loosen up and let credit flow again to ease the monetary system.  It is bad enough with businesses lacking custom without their banks not providing finance for decisions, because of their bad loans and lack of funds.

Ultimately animal spirits of the movers and the shakers will decide if this measure succeeds or fails. With people flocking to Ireland with their savings with the government saying that it will guarantee all deposits made that reassurance needs to be global in nature.

It is time for governments of the world to show that globalisation is not just about the allocation of resources, but independent nation states working together on interdependent issues affecting the economy. A free for all could end up in being a free fall.

McCain ain’t Dead

He ain't dead yet. Worse case scenario it happens in the White House. An Obama landslide is premature.

Meanwhile I have been saying that Obama needs to get to 10% by mid October to be safe from McCain making up ground in the closing stages of the campaign. With Gallup having him up by 8% and Rasmussen by 6%. Over the economic meltdown Obama has pulled ahead while McCain has floundered. Would Obama have followed if McCain had attacked the Bush plan? He could have appealed to Democrat leaning voters who are against the bail out. That decision may well come back to haunt McCain, even if he consoles himself that he was doing the right thing for America.

While Obama is on his way to victory, if his camp are really claiming that it will be a landslide that is premature. Victory yes, but in the closing stages McCain will come back  His support is underestimated while Obama’s is overstated – the only poll that counts will wither bear this out or not, the real question is by how much and whether McCain can come back in the final furlong.

With close states going to the current leader, Obama wins 353 to 185 in the electoral college that decides the Presidency (see blog linked below for explanation and how far this has moved from before the economic meltdown). However Obama has narrow leads in 85 of those votes. A 3% swing to McCain in those seats (well within margin of error) makes it 268 to 270 in McCains favour.

If Obama can keep Ohio worth (2.0% lead) worth 20 votes and Florida worth 27 votes (3% lead) then he will win. But calling it a landslide now is almost begging for my analysis to come and bite you in the ass. I want it to be true, but the numbers cannot be taken for granted. Just a 3% swing at the moment would out McCain in and that is so easily possible that if I was a Republican I would be making my base feel that they have to come out and fight while making Democrats feel they can stay at home in key states, it is a done deal.

Democrats need to be talking up the fight rather than being assured and complacent. It is there to be lost and will not take much. There is no prize for winning opinion polls and loosing the only poll that counts – the election. If McCain can get the Democrat controlled congress blamed for the current crisis …

OTHER BLOGS:

Obama 273 McCain 265 – which State will decide it?

Hillary Clinton impresses at Convention

"The duty to build that bright future"

Hillary started well with talking about the hard work of the campaign being wasted with failed Republican leadership retaining the White House. “No way, no how, no McCain”. The greatness of America being bound up with the determination of the American people in everyday life.

She was grateful for the support and “sisterhood of the traveling pant suit” through the fifty states. After eight years of George Bush the standing of the US is at a low internationally. She started talking about why she stood for the Presidency – and it almost sounded like she still was as the crowd became fired up. “These are the reasons why I support Barack Obama”. The Campaign was not just for her as a candidate but for the people of the United States.

“There are no limits to what is possible in America – but this will not be easy … We must fight for a Democratic President”. This was the talk that Obama supporters needed to hear – building up Obama as the man to get it done and the Democrats knowing how to do it. If only talking made it so; but reality is not what you want at a convention. What you need is something that fires up supporters and makes good TV. On that score , Clinton excelled.

“John McCain is my colleague and my friend”. Perhaps the friend bit was overdoing the sentiment when you consider the latest polling suggests as much as 30% of Hillary supporters are going to vote for McCain (up from the 15% The Economist mentioned over two weeks ago). “We do not need four more years of the last eight years”. The message that what angers Democrats about America today will only change with Barack Obama in the White House is the one that needed playing: inadequate health care, out sourcing, fore closers, more war less diplomacy, unequal pay – more of the same with McCain.

The story of the struggle of women to vote in the US, to the point now where her daughter could vote for her. To keep going in the darkest moments; as Americans not big on quiting and to get going to get Obama elected, without a vote to spare. “The duty to build that bright future.”

It hit all the right notes, and it was impressive. Gracious in accepting Obama, he could not have asked for more if he had written the speech. The question is will the die hard feminists that championed Clinton as their woman for so long will, like her, get up from the disappointment and support the party.

Her speech gave them no cover to do anything other than support Barack.